PandaLabs, the antimalware laboratory of Panda Security, has predicted several major cybersecurity threats for 2011. These include hacktivism, cyber warfare, profit-driven malware, social engineering, and adaptive malicious codes. Additionally, there will be increased threats to Mac users, new attacks on 64-bit systems, and more zero-day exploits.
Here is a summary of PandaLabs' top ten security trends for 2011:
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Malware Creation: In 2010, PandaLabs observed significant growth in malware, identifying 20 million new strains, more than in 2009. Currently, Panda’s Collective Intelligence database contains over 60 million classified threats. Although the year-on-year growth rate has peaked, it was 50% in 2010, down from over 100% in previous years.
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Cyber Warfare: Incidents like Stuxnet and the WikiLeaks cables, which suggested Chinese government involvement in cyber-attacks on Google, marked a turning point in cyber conflicts. Stuxnet targeted uranium centrifuges in nuclear plants. Such sophisticated attacks will likely increase in 2011, often unnoticed by the general public.
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Cyber Protests: Hacktivism, spurred by groups like Anonymous and Operation Payback, will grow. These cyber-protests have targeted organizations combating internet piracy and supported WikiLeaks' Julian Assange. Despite new legislation, cyber-protests are expected to increase in 2011, organized by existing and emerging groups.
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Social Engineering: Social media sites have become prime targets for cybercriminals, as users trust these platforms more than email. In 2010, attacks on Facebook and Twitter were prevalent. In 2011, these networks will see more distributed attacks. BlackHat SEO attacks will continue, leveraging hot topics to attract users, and malware will often be disguised as plug-ins and media players.
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Windows 7: Malware targeting Windows 7 will proliferate over the next two years. PandaLabs noticed this trend beginning in 2010 and expects it to continue in 2011.
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Mobile Phones: New attacks on mobile phones will occur in 2011, though not on a large scale. Most threats target Symbian, which is declining. However, threats for Android are expected to increase significantly, making it the primary mobile target for cybercriminals.
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Tablets: With new competitors entering the market, the dominance of the iPad will be challenged. However, tablet PCs are not expected to become major targets for cybercriminals in 2011.
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Mac: Malware for Mac exists and will grow as the market share of Mac users increases. The primary concern is the security holes in Apple’s operating system, which developers need to patch promptly to prevent exploitation by malware.
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HTML5: HTML5, potentially replacing Flash, is a prime target for criminals. It can run in browsers without plug-ins, making it attractive for finding exploitable security holes. PandaLabs expects the first HTML5 attacks to emerge soon.
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Dynamic and Encrypted Threats: There will be an increase in dynamic and encrypted threats in 2011. More encrypted, stealth threats designed to connect to servers and update themselves before detection are being observed. These threats often target specific users or companies, as information stolen from businesses is valuable on the black market.
